Brighton, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

608
FXUS65 KBOU 262031
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
231 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some virga and spotty weak showers/storms possible for the
  plains this afternoon, with gust outflow winds at times.

- Hot and dry Sunday into Monday.

- Afternoon thunderstorm chances return for Tuesday, with signs of
  a notably wetter pattern into Wednesday/Thursday, including
  potential for heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

We`ve seen our first few high-based showers develop across western
Denver metro over the past hour or two, with a few gusts of 35-40
mph noted near Boulder. It`s dry across the area, with DEN
recently reporting a T/Td of 97/29F... and unsurprisingly there
is little instability noted on the SPC Mesoanalysis and ACARS
soundings. Further east, surface dew points remain in the low to
mid 50s, and there`s been a couple attempts at more robust
convective initiation along a weak surface convergence axis
stretching from Lincoln into Washington counties. Our thoughts for
this afternoon and evening haven`t changed significantly, with
mainly gusty showers across the I-25 corridor, with a couple of
thunderstorms further east where there`s better instability. Can`t
rule out a microburst or two producing marginally severe winds
later this afternoon across the far northeast corner if a stronger
storm or two can develop there.

Ridging is expected to build a bit more for Sunday and Monday,
with 500mb heights near 597dam across most of the south-central
CONUS by Monday afternoon. The CWA will be well-positioned for
heat, with the very dry airmass over the Four Corners region
overlapping with the mid-level thermal ridge axis. Temperatures on
Sunday should reach the mid to upper 90s with mostly sunny skies.
Monday could see a few 100F highs across the plains... with
statistical guidance favoring 99-100F temperatures for DEN. Main
question mark is the amount of convective cloud cover that
afternoon with moisture increasing just a touch. Did think about
Heat Advisories for a bit but ultimately don`t have the confidence
at this lead time.

As we get towards the middle of the week, guidance has maintained
it`s signal for a significant increase in moisture. It`s still a
little too far away to get into more specific details of any
specific days. Likewise, it`s hard to pinpoint how much rainfall
could fall, but GFS (ECMWF) ensemble 75th percentile total QPF
falls near 1.5-1.75" (0.9-1.25") through Friday evening. Either
way, this does look to be a pretty favorable pattern to end the
month of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Main concern is still potential for
gusty high-based showers developing over the next few hours. With
ample DCAPE at least a few gusts to 35kt are possible through the
early evening hours. As mentioned in the previous AFD, better
potential for outflow at the terminals than there is for any
precipitation.

Wind direction will be a bit of a challenge this afternoon as
well, with guidance offering few clear signals. Speeds should
generally be light, and direction may be dependent on whatever
outflow boundaries become more dominant later today. Drainage
winds are expected overnight, with light and variable winds
eventually turning to the east tomorrow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Hiris